So the Massey method correctly predicted the winner of all eight Round 2 games. What’s more, the predicted point spread for five of the eight games were within one touchdown of the actual score. That’s pretty impressive to me. Three games were further outside the predicted spread; one was the Force/Crash game, which had a predicted difference of 65 and a true difference of 56. So, off by 9 points, which to me feels like it’s still within an acceptable margin of error when the spread’s that big anyway. The Diamonds/Mustangs game was a magnified version of that: predicted difference of 57, actual difference of 76. This is not surprising to me as I kind of feel like tacking on two or three touchdowns to any predicted Diamonds score when they’re playing someone they can decimate since they seem to be fond of scoring in unnecessary situations. The Bandits/Central Cal game was the only one with a truly surprising score – it was predicted to be a nailbiter, within 3 points. Actual score? Bandits: 34, Central Cal: 8.
Was that game a failure of the Massey system and, by association, a failure of the concept of using statistics to predict game outcomes? Some would say yes. Some would also be dingbats. To me, it was perfect. If stats correctly predicted the outcome of every game always, the games would cease to have meaning or interest. That doesn’t mean that the statistical predictions are baseless or fundamentally inaccurate – they say what SHOULD happen, based on measurable factors. We watch (or listen or follow) because we don’t know when something might outweigh those measurable factors. That said, dunno if I see that happening with any of these four games – as I’ve mentioned before, the WFA is a bit strange in that games tend to get MORE predictable as playoffs progress.
Predicted outcome of WFA Round 3 playoff games using Massey ratings:
- Chicago Force over Jacksonville Dixie Blues by 57 points
- San Diego Surge over Bay Area Bandits by 35 points
- Dallas Diamonds over KC Tribe by 19 points
- Boston Militia over DC Divas by 15 points
Tomorrow or Saturday morning I’ll make another post with game times for all of these and links to whatever feeds I can find info on. In the meantime, enjoy this comparison between the 2011 and 2012 WFA playoffs; had Chicago not been redistricted out of the mother of all meatgrinder divisions this season, I think this whole round might have been entirely identical.
