Below is the schedule for the WFA Round 2 playoff games (in EST first ’cause that’s where I am and it’s my blog) as well as any links I have been able to find to audio, video or social media feeds for each game. Should you have any additional information or corrections, please let me know in the comments or via the contact page and I’ll update the info right away. Thanks!

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And lest anyone think I’m just the TV Guide of women’s football, let’s cover two more items here:

1. There’s an ongoing debate about the line between “playing hard” and “running up the score.” Something that needs to be remembered, though, is that in the WFA (right now, at least) point differentials factor into the determination of who wins divisions, who makes the playoffs and where the games are held. The differential is generally capped at 40 points, which means it is always to a team’s advantage to try to make that max differential. Thus – and NY Sharks radio announcers, I’m talkin’ to you – if a team is up 30-something points in the fourth quarter, it’s actually not a dick move to try to get one or two more touchdowns, or go all-out to try to prevent their opponents from scoring. It’s a legit and necessary strategy if you’re thinking about the big picture. In fact, should the Militia make it to Round 4 of the playoffs this year, it’s almost definite that the game would be away (I can’t imagine it would be anywhere but Chicago) because of a difference of two touchdowns in the entire season.

   Now, if you’re up 60-something points and you’re going for two, ok, that’s pretty dickish. And there’s absolutely no effing excuse for a triple-digit score. This isn’t basketball, people. Put a friggin’ lid on it. You’re not helping the cause.

2. Backseat Coach believes I am stunting Tiny Coach’s emotional growth by not allowing him to learn how to boo.

That’s all for now – I’ll have an updated bracket posted after the games are completed. (Dear SD Surge & Pac Warriors: feel free not to go into overtime. I miss sleeping on Saturday nights. xo, militia cheerleader)

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Your Militia Cheerleader is, by trade, a data analyst. As such, this is one of my favorite quotes ever (it’s attributed to Mark Twain): “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.”

I know very well that numbers can be manipulated, and the accuracy of any argument based on numbers is only as strong as the integrity of the person putting the argument together. That said, I think stats are wicked hot.

I was quite sad when the Massey Ratings site stopped analyzing women’s tackle football; I don’t know why that change was made but I felt like it was a real loss for the sport. So I was really psyched when I found out that someone had taken it upon themselves to calculate current ratings for the WFA using Massey’s formula – I’ve posted them here with express permission.

The Massey system is explained for laymen here and explained for data geeks here. Basically, it takes game results and uses them to predict the probable winner and margin of victory for the theoretical match-up of any two teams. For example, the ratings before Round 1 of the playoffs (I haven’t posted those but can if people are interested) had the Pittsburgh Passion’s rating at 46.843 and the Detroit Dark Angels at 19.649. Home field advantage was calculated at 3.319, so you take the difference of the ratings and add in PGH’s home field advantage and the data says that the Passion should win by 31 points. They did, in fact, win by 34 points (which is pretty damn close to predicted, all things considered).

The ratings correctly predicted the winner of all eight Round 1 games. Additionally, with a few exceptions the ratings also correctly predicted the comparative order of point differentials – that is to say, both the Passion and the Sharks should have won their games, but the Passion should have won by more than the Sharks did (34 points and less than 1 point, respectively – remember, these are theoretical computations, not dictations of actual scores). And guess what – they did! (31 points and 5 points, respectively).

So what, you say? Plenty what, I say! First, stuff like this is prime fuel for time-wasting arguments about the accuracy and validity of predictive models. Second, it’s pretty-looking. Third, it allows for tidbits like this: I calculated the total predicted point differential of all the games in Round 1 and then did the same for the upcoming Round 2 games. The total predicted difference is almost 20% higher in the Round 2 games than the first round – which really just supports what we all already know: lots of Round 2 and Round 3 games are far less competitive than regular season and Round 1 games. War Angels at Jynx? Interesting game. Crash at Force? Major snoozefest.

So just in case there are some of you who don’t enjoy playing with Excel as much as I do, I have gone ahead and posted the numerically-predicted outcomes of the Round 2 games scheduled for this upcoming Saturday. What do you think? Do you see any upsets coming? Any qualitative factors that might outweigh the quantitative ones? As ever, I’d love to hear your thoughts.

Predicted outcome of Round 2 games using Massey Ratings

• Chicago Force over Indy Crash by 65 points
• Dallas Diamonds over Lone Star Mustangs by 57 points
• Boston Militia over NY Sharks by 43 points
• San Diego Surge over Pacific Warriors by 42 points
• KC Tribe over St. Louis Slam by 19 points
• DC Divas over Pittsburgh Passion by 11 points
• Jacksonville Dixie Blues over Atlanta Phoenix by 8 points
• Bay Area Bandits over Central Cal War Angels by 3 points

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A few people asked where they could get their hands on the new & improved WFA playoff bracket that I’ve been working on when I was supposed to be working on other stuff. The answer is: right here, my friends. Choose your own adventure:

I want to print a pretty thing and look at it! Awesome – here’s your PDF.

I want to download an editable thing so I can mess with it! I totally get that – here’s your Excel spreadsheet.

Errors within said documents are entirely possible. I’ll post whatever corrections I get ASAP.

Happy almost-post-season, everyone!

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Since the WFA will probably announce these games about a half-hour before they happen, I figured I’d share the list of Round 1 games as I see them. If anyone sees anything that looks inaccurate, please let me know.

1. Keystone Assault (Div 1 winner) @ NY Sharks (Div 2 wildcard).
   Winner plays @ Boston Militia in Round 2.
2. Detroit Dark Angels (Div 4 winner) @ Pittsburgh Passion (Div 3 wildcard).
   Winner plays @ DC Divas in Round 2.
3. Toledo Reign (Div 5 winner) vs. Indy Crash (Div 6 wildcard).
   Winner plays @ Chicago Force in Round 2.

   Note: these two teams play each other this week; the winner of that game will have home field for Round 1. (Also, technically the Crash are not the wildcard yet; if the West Michigan Mayhem happen to beat the Chicago Force this week, the Mayhem will be the wildcard team. This is not likely.)

4. (Probably) Atlanta Phoenix (Div 7 winner) vs. Tallahassee Jewels (Div 8 winner).
   Winner plays @ Jacksonville Dixie Blues in Round 2.

   Note: The Phoenix and the Sabers play each other this week; in their last game the Phoenix won 57-13. So the Sabers need to win by 45 points or more on Saturday in order to be the div champs, otherwise it’s Atlanta.

   Other note: I have been told by an Acadiana Zydeco player that if the Zydeco win this week’s game by more than 2 points, they will be the Div 8 winner instead of Tallahassee. The numbers I’m looking at don’t support that, but it’s entirely possible that I’m looking at inaccurate info. If I get any clarification on this I’ll update it.

5. Minnesota Machine (Div 10 winner) @ St. Louis Slam (Div 11 wildcard).
   Winner plays @ KC Tribe in Round 2.
6. Arkansas Wildcats OR Memphis Dynasty (Div 13 winner) vs. Lone Star Mustangs (Div 12 wildcard).
   Winner plays @ Dallas Diamonds in Round 2.

   Note: The Wildcats and the Dynasty play this week; the winner of that game will be the Div 13 champ.

7. Utah Jynx (Div 14 winner) vs. Bay Area Bandits OR Central CA War Angels (Div 16 wildcard).
   Winner plays @ Div 16 champ in Round 2.

   Note: The Bandits & War Angels play each other this week. The winner of that game will be the Div 16 champion, and the other team will be the wildcard team and play in Round 1 vs. Utah Jynx.

8. San Diego Sting OR Las Vegas Showgirlz (Div 15 winner) vs. Pacific Warriors (Div 17 wildcard).
   Winner plays @ San Diego Surge in Round 2.

   Note: The Sting and the Showgirlz play each other this week. If the Showgirlz win, they’re the div champs. If the Sting win by 24 points or more, they’ll be the div champs.

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This is the first of a series of posts about all the big fat issues that Backseat Coach and I have discovered while trying to figure out the WFA’s 2012 playoff structure. The sheer volume of malarkey found precludes it being put into one post.

OK, so I understand why some league information isn’t made public. I don’t need to know how much league fees are or why one team is awarded a charter and another isn’t or the line items of the WFA’s budget. However, I find it incredibly frustrating that there is this huge void of information about how playoffs are structured (how division winners are determined, who has home field, etc.).

As of today (6/4/12), going to the WFA website and clicking on “Championship Information” brings you to an awesome page about the upcoming 2011 championship game between the Militia and the Surge. (Quick, get your tickets now! I promise, it’s gonna be an awesome game. Little warm, tho.) There’s no other playoff info anywhere on the site that I could find.

Then through a few different channels I saw a three-page Word document laying out the divisions, dividing them into blue (stronger), yellow (less strong) and green (Florida), and explaining how home field would be determined for playoff games. It was a little confusing, but at least it was information.

Except that it’s inaccurate.

The inaccuracy centers around home field for the first round of the playoffs and as such, does not affect the Boston Militia at all, since they will be the Div 2 winner and thus start in the second round. But it does affect a lot of other teams. Here’s the deal: if you’ve seen the playoff document I’m talking about and you looked at the home field determination criteria, you probably saw this:

Round 1
Division Winner

Round 2
Blue/Green Division Winner Hosts

See that part at the beginning that says division winners play at home in the first round of the playoffs (as opposed to the wild card winner of the matched blue division)? HA HA JUST KIDDING. Apparently there was a WFA owner’s meeting last October wherein that was changed, but the WFA forgot to update their materials, resulting in the entire league being sent inaccurate information about games that are going to be played within a matter of weeks. It seems they realized their error and resent the correct information several days later, but unless they titled the email “HOLY EFF WE EFFED IT UP – USE THIS ONE INSTEAD”, my guess is that most people thought it was a dupe of the first and didn’t bother opening it.

So what’s the new deal? It’s as follows:

First round Home Team based on:

1. Head to Head record
2. Common Opponent-record, point differential
3. Overall Record

So let’s put aside for the moment the whole issue of the info being inaccurate, and look at the info itself. That determination of home field is, in your Militia Cheerleader’s humble opinion, a huge pile of bunk. (Remember, this has jack to do with the Militia; they’re not even playing in the first round). I cannot wrap my mind around a system where a division winner travels to a wild card team’s home field. What the hell’s the point of winning your division, then? There’s already a pretty damn big chance that the wild card team from the blue division is gonna win, which means the yellow teams are playing all season for the chance to go somewhere else, lose, and go home. Winnah!

So, takeaway: it’s a sucky change that was made to a playoff system that most people can’t find info on anyway.

Coming up next: The Curious Case of 7-1 vs. 3-5.

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